The US superpower status will last forever
Study: USA will lose superpower status in the long run
Washington - According to the country's secret services, the US will suffer a noticeable loss of economic and political power over the next two decades. "The United States will then still be the most important great power, but less dominant," says a study by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the center for medium- and long-term prognoses, published on Thursday (local time).
In view of the competition from emerging countries such as China and India, the USA will therefore "be just one of a number of important players on the world stage" by 2025. At the same time, the paper warns that international conflicts over raw materials such as oil and drinking water will flare up again.
"The international system as it was constructed after the Second World War will be almost unrecognizable in 2025," says the approximately 120-page prognosis study. The main reason is the rise of the emerging countries, the globalization of the economy and a historical transfer of wealth and economic power from the west to the east. The gap between industrialized and developing countries will decrease noticeably. Instead of adapting to the West, countries like Brazil, Russia, China or India would have a lot of freedom to set their own political priorities.
Russia and Canada could benefit
Climate change will therefore extend the agriculturally usable season in Russia and Canada and facilitate access to oil reserves in the far north and thus strengthen the economies of both countries. Russia's possible rise to world power is made more difficult by hesitant investments in the energy sector as well as the ongoing crime and corruption in authorities. The intelligence experts also warn that organized crime could eventually usurp control in a state in Eastern or Central Europe. The report does not give the name of the country.
According to the forecast, countries in Africa and South Asia could become ungovernable. The world population will compete more and more for food, water and energy resources.
Conflicts believed to have disappeared, such as those over raw materials, could reignite in the face of this development, the secret services fear. In the worst case, wars between states could arise if governments consider access to energy sources, for example, to be of vital importance. The risk of the use of nuclear weapons also increases in view of the spread of nuclear technology and the corresponding knowledge.
The report goes on to assume that the al Qaeda terrorist network is crumbling "faster than people think". It is said that al Qaeda is becoming increasingly unpopular in Muslim countries. A non-Arab country outside the Middle East could grow to geopolitical importance. Iran, too, could become a central figure in a new world order if the country shed its theocratic form of government.
The NIC publishes the report on global trends every four or five years. Hundreds of intelligence analysts and outside experts are asked about their assessments for the near future. The report "Global Trends 2025" was worked on for a year. (APA / dpa / AP)
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